A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid points, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has has important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
